The NFL playoffs 2026 have officially arrived—and this postseason already feels different from the norm. Two of the league’s recent heavyweights, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions, failed to qualify, ensuring that the Super Bowl will feature a new AFC representative for the first time since 2021. Even more striking, both No. 1 seeds from the 2024 season are absent, signaling a dramatic shift in the league’s balance of power.
Instead, the spotlight belongs to the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, each coming off 14-win campaigns and earning first-round byes. As wild-card weekend kicks off, the remaining contenders face immediate pressure—one mistake ends their Super Bowl dreams.
Below is a complete wild-card matchup breakdown, along with an analysis of how each team’s strengths, weaknesses, and momentum shape their Super Bowl odds.
AFC Wild-Card Matchups & Super Bowl Outlook
No. 2 New England Patriots (14–3) vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers (11–6)
The New England Patriots return to playoff prominence under head coach Mike Vrabel, completing one of the league’s most dramatic turnarounds. After winning just 14 games over the previous three seasons combined, New England surged to 14 victories behind rookie quarterback Drake Maye.
Maye exceeded even lofty expectations, leading the NFL in completion percentage (72.0%) and passer rating (113.5), while throwing for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns. That efficiency makes the Patriots legitimate Super Bowl threats, especially with home-field advantage in Foxborough.
Standing in their way are the Los Angeles Chargers, led by quarterback Justin Herbert. Despite being sacked 54 times behind a depleted offensive line, Herbert delivered an MVP-caliber season. Defensively, coordinator Jesse Minter has built a unit ranked inside the top eight in points, yards, and run defense.
Super Bowl outlook:
- Patriots: Strong AFC contender with elite QB play
- Chargers: Dangerous road team, but protection issues loom large
No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (13–4) vs. No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12–5)
Few teams finished hotter than the Jacksonville Jaguars. Rookie head coach Liam Coen revitalized an offense that ranked 26th in scoring a year ago. Since Week 9, Jacksonville has averaged 32.8 points per game, second-best in the NFL.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence enjoyed the most complete season of his career, accounting for 38 total touchdowns and committing just one turnover in his final six games. Defensively, the Jaguars ranked second in takeaways and first against the run—two postseason-critical metrics.
The Buffalo Bills, however, bring rare playoff experience to a relatively young AFC field. Quarterback Josh Allen, the reigning league MVP, is no stranger to January football, even if Buffalo enters as a road team.
Super Bowl outlook:
- Jaguars: Balanced roster with championship upside
- Bills: Battle-tested and capable of a deep run if Allen heats up
No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (10–7) vs. No. 5 Houston Texans (12–5)
The Houston Texans may be the most dangerous wild-card team in the field. Riding a nine-game winning streak, Houston boasts the league’s second-best scoring defense, anchored by edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr..
Quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to grow behind an improved offensive line, giving Houston the tools to upset anyone.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, meanwhile, arrive as AFC North champions after sweeping the Ravens. Veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers was brought in to end a playoff drought that has stretched back to 2016.
Super Bowl outlook:
- Texans: Legitimate dark horse with elite defense
- Steelers: Experience helps, but recent playoff failures linger
NFC Wild-Card Matchups & Super Bowl Outlook
No. 2 Chicago Bears (11–6) vs. No. 7 Green Bay Packers (9–7–1)
Few rivalries match the historical weight of Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers. This postseason chapter marks Chicago’s return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020, under rookie head coach Ben Johnson and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams.
Williams’ poise and playmaking have fueled optimism, but history favors Green Bay, which has dominated the rivalry in January. Still, the Packers limp in on a four-game losing streak, with quarterback Jordan Love struggling and a defense weakened by injuries.
Super Bowl outlook:
- Bears: Rising contender, but untested in playoffs
- Packers: Long odds, but rivalry chaos is always possible
No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles (11–6) vs. No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (12–5)
The San Francisco 49ers arrive battle-tested, despite injuries. Running back Christian McCaffrey amassed over 2,100 yards from scrimmage, while head coach Kyle Shanahan remains one of the league’s premier playoff tacticians.
The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles endured an uneven season, but their defense remains elite. Quarterback Jalen Hurts must steady an inconsistent offense if Philadelphia hopes to repeat.
Super Bowl outlook:
- 49ers: Experienced and dangerous
- Eagles: Defense gives them a puncher’s chance
No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8–9) vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (12–5)
The Los Angeles Rams entered December as Super Bowl favorites behind quarterback Matthew Stafford, but late-season inconsistency cost them a division title. Still, coach Sean McVay has guided the Rams to seven playoff appearances in nine seasons.
The Carolina Panthers, led by quarterback Bryce Young, stunned the Rams earlier this season and claimed their first NFC South title in a decade.
Super Bowl outlook:
- Rams: Strong roster with championship pedigree
- Panthers: Cinderella story with limited margin for error
Final Takeaway
With traditional powerhouses sidelined, the NFL playoffs 2026 offer one of the most unpredictable postseason fields in recent memory. The Broncos and Seahawks sit comfortably atop their conferences, but several wild-card teams—particularly the Texans, Jaguars, and 49ers—have realistic paths to the Super Bowl.
As wild-card weekend unfolds, one thing is certain: the road to the Lombardi Trophy will demand balance, health, and clutch quarterback play. In a year defined by upheaval, the next NFL champion may be the most unexpected yet.